THE MONEY THIS WEEK • UFC 333: ABU DHABI & LFA 244

Active 50/50 Bankroll Allocation for October 23–24, 2026, engineered strictly under the Dricus du Plessis Body-First Doctrine. Every target below passes Rule #1 (+2 to +3 Inch Height & Frame Advantage), Khabib's 35-Year Age Cap, and The Undefeated Shield—verified via Python math with zero exposure above 30%.

Rule #1: Body First (+2–3" Advantage Required)
Rule #2: Defensive Excellence
Rule #3: Takedown Escape + Ground Control
Rule #4: World-Class Gym Caliber (ATT / ACA)
Rule #5: Flash KO Veto
Khabib 35-Cap (Fade 38yo Volkanovski)
$1,000.00
Active Bankroll (50/50 Split)
$2,496.80
Full Sweep Payout
+$1,496.80 (+149.68%)
Net Profit Potential
$883.21
Singles Safety Floor (88.3%)
Adjust Bankroll:

TRANCHE A: THE PARLAY NET (50% ALLOCATION)

4 decoupled 2-leg combinations across UFC 333 (Oct 24). Maximum exposure per fighter strictly capped at ≤ 30% of bankroll.
Tranche Allocation: $500.00
Parlay #1: The Caucasian Wrestling Lock
Tier S + Tier S
2.970x (+197)
Movsar Evloev ML UFC 333 1.909 (-110)
Abubakar Vagaev ML UFC 333 1.556 (-180)
Stake: $150.00
Payout: $445.47
Parlay #2: Abu Dhabi Main Card Giants
Tier S + Tier A
3.500x (+250)
Movsar Evloev ML UFC 333 1.909 (-110)
Alexander Volkov ML UFC 333 1.833 (-120)
Stake: $150.00
Payout: $525.00
Parlay #3: The +3 Inch Twin Towers
Tier S + Tier A
2.852x (+185)
Abubakar Vagaev ML UFC 333 1.556 (-180)
Alexander Volkov ML UFC 333 1.833 (-120)
Stake: $100.00
Payout: $285.19
Parlay #4: Reach & Footwork Net
Tier A + Tier A
3.579x (+258)
Alexander Volkov ML UFC 333 1.833 (-120)
Lone'er Kavanagh ML UFC 333 1.952 (-105)
Stake: $100.00
Payout: $357.93

TRANCHE B: VALUE SINGLES (50% ALLOCATION)

Straight bets on our top 3 UFC 333 Body-First locks. All easily clear the > 1.25 (-400) odds threshold and protect 88.3% of the total bankroll alone.
Tranche Allocation: $500.00
Tier S • Supreme Lock
Movsar Evloev
UFC 333 Main Event • 145 lb Title vs. Alexander Volkanovski (38yo)
Height Edge: +2 Inches (5'8" vs 5'6") Age Edge: 6 Yrs Younger (32 vs 38) Price: 1.909 (-110)
Stake: $200.00
Payout: $381.82 (+$181.82)
Tier S • +3" Frame Lock
Abubakar Vagaev
UFC 333 Prelims • Middleweight vs. Jacob Malkoun
Height Edge: +3 Inches (6'0" vs 5'9") Pedigree: 25–4 Former ACA Champ Price: 1.556 (-180)
Stake: $175.00
Payout: $272.23 (+$97.23)
Tier A • Giant Reach
Alexander Volkov
UFC 333 Main Card • Heavyweight vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Height Edge: +3 Inches (6'7" vs 6'4") Reach Edge: +5 Inches (81" vs 76") Price: 1.833 (-120)
Stake: $125.00
Payout: $229.16 (+$104.16)
FRIDAY NIGHT BONUS SLATE: LFA 244 (OCT 23, 2026) • LOCKS, AMATEUR PEDIGREE & BEST GYMS
When BetOnline drops regional LFA 244 lines on Wednesday/Thursday, these are our graded LFA 244 targets audited across NCAA D1 credentials, undefeated amateur records, and Rule #4 Fight Camps:
OPEN FULL LFA 244 DOSSIER PAGE →
LFA 244 LOCK RANK FIGHTER & BOUT AMATEUR / NCAA PEDIGREE FIGHT CAMP & GRADE (RULE #4) EXECUTION TRIGGER
#1 OVERALL LFA LOCK Paul Capaldo (8–1)
vs. Sebastian Ruiz (135)		 5–0 Undefeated Amateur MMA Champ (13–1 Combined) Nick Catone MMA / AMA (#1 Gym • Grade A) Verify Height at Thu Weigh-Ins → Lock ML
#2 WRESTLING LOCK Jake Woodley (8–1)
vs. Zayne Havener (185 Title)		 2021 NCAA D1 All-American (6th at Oklahoma, 197 lbs) Team Bodyshop / OC RTC (#2 Gym • Grade A) 6'0" vs 6'1" (-1") • Verify 197lb Frame on Scale
#3 SIZE LOCK (+3") Joe Giannetti (17–8–1)
vs. Ednilson Santos (155)		 4–0 Amateur MMA • TUF 27 UFC Lightweight Finalist South Shore (B) vs. Plinio Cruz / Pereira Camp (B+) +3" Height (6'0" vs 5'9"), Capped for KO Risk
#4 UNDEFEATED CLASH Thomas Blackorby (5–0)
vs. Devan Worth (5–0)		 30+ Ammy MMA/KB Bouts • WAKO National Champ Peoria AC / Belal Muhammad Camp (Grade A-) Hold (Worth is also 5–0 Undefeated Shield)
TAPE ROOM: INTERACTIVE FILM STUDY SUITE
Full tactical video breakdown for all 7 potential locks (UFC 333 & LFA 244). Directly launch fight tape on YouTube, inspect Rule #1–#5 criteria on video, check off verification items, and save your private film study notes locally in your browser.
Jump to: Evloev Vagaev Volkov Kavanagh Capaldo Woodley Giannetti
Tier S Supreme Lock UFC 333 Main Event • 145 Title Odds: -110 (1.909x)

Movsar Evloev vs. Alexander Volkanovski

Physical Edge: +2" Height (5'8" vs 5'6") • 6 Years Younger (32 vs 38) • ATT vs CKB
Tape Grade:
Evloev Fight Tape Volkanovski KO Tape (Chin Audit) Tapology Profile Faceoff / Stance Footage
Curated Tape Study Focus
  • Evloev vs. Arnold Allen (UFC 297): Watch Rd 2–3. Observe Evloev eating southpaw knees and an overhand left, tucking his chin, instantly resetting his stance, and securing level-change takedowns without getting concussed.
  • Evloev vs. Diego Lopes (UFC 288): Watch how Evloev escapes 3 tight submission attempts, clears hips, and maintains relentless top pressure.
  • Volkanovski vs. Topuria & Makhachev 2: Check Volkanovski's reaction time to high kicks and feints. At 38 years old, his lateral bounce is significantly slower than in 2021.
Tape Study Key: Does Evloev look visibly larger in frame than Volkanovski on the scale? Verify if Evloev backs straight up or pivots with hooks.
Tape Verification Checklist
My Film Study Notes Auto-Saved
Saves locally in browser
Tier S +3" Frame Lock UFC 333 Prelims • Middleweight (185) Odds: -180 (1.556x)

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun

Physical Edge: +3" Height (6'0" vs 5'9") • 25–4 Former ACA Champ • Master of Sport Anti-Wrestling
Tape Grade:
Vagaev ACA Title Tape Malkoun Fight Tape Tapology Profile Striking & Takedown Defense
Curated Tape Study Focus
  • Vagaev vs. Ustarmagomed Gadzhidaudov (ACA 143/156): Watch Vagaev's masterclass underhook defense and lateral pivoting. He stuffed Dagestani Greco-Roman grapplers with ease for 25 full minutes.
  • Malkoun vs. Phil Hawes & Andre Petroski: Notice Malkoun's entry trajectory. Malkoun shoots single-legs from way too far out with head bent down. Hawes knocked him out in 18 seconds when Malkoun shot blindly.
Tape Study Key: Check Vagaev's frame moving up from 170 to 185 lbs. Malkoun is 5'9" with short stumpy arms; Vagaev at 6'0" should dwarf him in height and frame.
Tape Verification Checklist
My Film Study Notes Auto-Saved
Saves locally in browser
Tier A Giant Reach Lock UFC 333 Main Card • Heavyweight (265) Odds: -120 (1.833x)

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Physical Edge: +3" Height (6'7" vs 6'4") • +5" Reach (81" vs 76") • 51 Pro Fights Experience Edge
Tape Grade:
Volkov vs. Pavlovich Clinic Kuniev Tape (DWCS/PFL) Tapology Profile Distance Control Tape
Curated Tape Study Focus
  • Volkov vs. Sergei Pavlovich (UFC Saudi Arabia): Best tape to study. Watch Volkov pump the 81" jab and front teep into the solar plexus over and over. Pavlovich couldn't touch him cleanly the entire 15 minutes.
  • Kuniev Tape Breakdown: Kuniev is a slow plodder whose primary game is initiating clinch stalls against the fence. Watch how Kuniev panics when opponents maintain range and circle off the fence.
Tape Study Key: Confirm Volkov stays active behind his jab and doesn't sit back flat-footed with his back against the cage.
Tape Verification Checklist
My Film Study Notes Auto-Saved
Saves locally in browser
Tier A Parlay Net Target UFC 333 Main Card • Flyweight (125) Odds: -105 (1.952x)

Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov

Physical Edge: +2" Height (5'6" vs 5'4") • +4" Reach (67" vs 63") • Great Britain Top Team
Tape Grade:
Kavanagh DWCS Knockout Tape Temirov UFC Debut KO Tapology Profile Cage Warriors Film
Curated Tape Study Focus
  • Kavanagh vs. An Tuan Ho (DWCS 2024): Watch Kavanagh's back-pedal check hook. Ho charged forward with combinations, and Kavanagh slid backward on the perimeter, angled out, and landed a clean KO hook.
  • Temirov vs. CJ Vergara (UFC Fight Night 244): Watch Temirov's blitzes. Temirov is 5'4" and throws everything with 100% force in straight lines. If opponents stand stationary in front of him, he hurts them. If opponents circle, Temirov exhausts himself.
Tape Study Key: Verify that Kavanagh maintains lateral footwork and doesn't get trapped in pocket phone-booth exchanges where Temirov's compact hooks can connect.
Tape Verification Checklist
My Film Study Notes Auto-Saved
Saves locally in browser
#1 LFA 244 Lock LFA 244 Main Card • Bantamweight (135) 13–1 Combined (8–1 Pro, 5–0 Ammy)

Paul Capaldo vs. Sebastian Ruiz

Camp Edge: Nick Catone MMA / AMA (#1 Gym on Card) • Relentless NJ Wrestling & Top Pressure
Tape Grade:
Capaldo CFFC Tape Sebastian Ruiz Tape Tapology Profile Viral Knockout Tape
Curated Tape Study Focus
  • Capaldo vs. Chris Disonell (CFFC 86): Look at Capaldo's explosive wrestling transitions. When strikers try to kick at him, he catches kicks effortlessly and drives them straight to the canvas.
  • Ruiz Takedown Defense Breakdown: Ruiz is a pure Muay Thai striker who squares up his hips. On regional tape, aggressive wrestlers have taken him down at will.
Weigh-In Watch: Ruiz's height is unlisted in athletic commissions. Watch Thursday's LFA 244 faceoffs to ensure Capaldo is not giving up 2+ inches.
Tape Verification Checklist
My Film Study Notes Auto-Saved
Saves locally in browser
#2 LFA Wrestling Lock LFA 244 Main Event • 185 Title 2021 NCAA D1 All-American (Oklahoma 197 lbs)

Jake Woodley vs. Zayne Havener

Pedigree Edge: NCAA D1 #6 (Beat Elam, Caffey) • Team Bodyshop / OC RTC vs. Regional Sub Grappler
Tape Grade:
Woodley NCAA D1 Matches Woodley MMA Fights Tapology Profile Havener Tape (Sub Traps)
Curated Tape Study Focus
  • Woodley 2021 NCAA Tournament Run: Watch Woodley as the #26 seed upset #7 Rocky Elam, #10 Cameron Caffey, and #15 Michael Beard at 197 lbs. Unbelievable hip torque and top riding.
  • Havener Guillotine Traps: Havener's path to victory is catching wrestlers in front-headlocks or guillotines when they shoot head-outside. Watch Woodley's head positioning on entries to confirm he stays tight to the chest.
Rule #1 Body Audit: Woodley is listed at 6'0" vs Havener at 6'1" (-1" paper deficit). Watch Thursday faceoffs to confirm Woodley's natural 197 lb bone thickness offsets the 1-inch listing.
Tape Verification Checklist
My Film Study Notes Auto-Saved
Saves locally in browser
#3 LFA Size Lock (+3") LFA 244 Co-Main • Lightweight (155) KO Alert: Opponent Coached by Plinio Cruz

Joe Giannetti vs. Ednilson Santos

Physical Edge: +3" Height (6'0" vs 5'9") • TUF 27 Finalist (4–0 Ammy) • High Chin Durability vs. Brazilian Power
Tape Grade:
Giannetti Fight Tape Santos KO Tape (Plinio Cruz) Tapology Profile TUF 27 Submissions
Curated Tape Study Focus
  • Giannetti Range Karate & Front Chokes: Watch Giannetti on the outside. At 6'0" (74" reach), his straight karate side kick and long front headlock d'arce/guillotine choke are regional killers.
  • Santos Hook Power (Alex Pereira System): Santos trains under Plinio Cruz (Alex Pereira's coach). Look for Santos lunging in with wide left hooks and flying knees. If Giannetti drops his hands while stepping back, Santos can crack.
Devil's Advocate Warning: Giannetti passes Rule #1 with +3 inches of height, but Santos's KO rate means this bout carries genuine Rule #5 tension. Cap exposure accordingly!
Tape Verification Checklist
My Film Study Notes Auto-Saved
Saves locally in browser

UFC 333 TALE OF THE TAPE & PHYSICAL AUDIT

Real physical metrics, age differentials, and tactical breakdowns for our 4 qualified Saturday targets.
Movsar Evloev vs. Alexander Volkanovski
UFC 333 Main Event • Featherweight Championship (145 lbs)
Rule #1 (+2" Height) + 35-Yr Age Cap
Physical MetricMovsar Evloev (-110)A. Volkanovski (-110)
Height5'8" (173 cm)5'6" (168 cm)
Reach72.5" (184 cm)71.5" (182 cm)
Height / Reach Edge+2 INCHES HEIGHT & +1 INCH REACH ADVANTAGE
Age (Khabib 35-Cap)32 Years Old (Prime)38 Years Old (Violates 35-Cap)
Fight Camp & ShieldAmerican Top Team • UndefeatedCity Kickboxing / Freestyle MMA
Tactical Thesis: Under Khabib's 35-Year Age Cap and the Undefeated Shield, nobody remains untouchable at 38 years old in the lighter weight classes. Evloev is 6 years younger, 2 inches taller, undefeated, and trains at American Top Team (ATT) with elite Greco-Roman chain wrestling and an uncrackable chin. Getting him at -110 pick'em odds is the highest-conviction play of the week.
Abubakar Vagaev (25–4) vs. Jacob Malkoun (10–3)
UFC 333 Prelims • Middleweight Bout (185 lbs)
Rule #1 Pass (+3" Height Edge)
Physical MetricAbubakar Vagaev (-180)Jacob Malkoun (+150)
Height6'0" (183 cm)5'9" (175 cm)
Height Differential+3 INCHES HEIGHT ADVANTAGE
Pro Experience25–4 (Former ACA Champion)10–3 Regional/UFC Grinder
Age33 Years Old31 Years Old
Stylistic DynamicElite Caucasian Anti-Wrestling + KickboxingOne-Dimensional Single-Leg Wrestler
Tactical Thesis: Malkoun is a severely undersized 5'9" Middleweight whose entire game plan relies on spamming single-leg takedowns. Vagaev stands 6'0" (+3" height edge), is a former ACA Champion with 29 pro fights (25–4), and possesses master-of-sport grappling defense and superior striking volume.
Alexander Volkov (40–11) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (14–3–1)
UFC 333 Main Card • Heavyweight Bout (265 lbs)
Rule #1 Pass (+3" Height / +5" Reach)
Physical MetricAlexander Volkov (-120)Rizvan Kuniev (+110)
Height6'7" (201 cm)6'4" (193 cm)
Reach81.0" (206 cm)76.0" (193 cm)
Size Differential+3 INCHES HEIGHT & +5 INCHES REACH ADVANTAGE
UFC Experience40–11 (Top-5 UFC HW Veteran)14–3–1 (DWCS / Regional Level)
Primary Weapons81" Jab, Front Teep Kicks, Cage-CraftFence Clinch & Dirty Boxing
Tactical Thesis: Volkov towers at 6'7" with an 81-inch reach (+3" height, +5" reach over Kuniev) and has proven over 51 pro fights that he effortlessly picks apart plodding, shorter heavyweights who lack elite blast double-legs.
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov
UFC 333 Main Card • Flyweight Bout (125 lbs)
Rule #1 Pass (+2" Height / +4" Reach)
Physical MetricLone'er Kavanagh (-105)Ramazan Temirov (-115)
Height5'6" (168 cm)5'4" (163 cm)
Reach67.0" (170 cm)63.0" (160 cm)
Size Differential+2 INCHES HEIGHT & +4 INCHES REACH ADVANTAGE
Age27 Years Old29 Years Old
Fight CampGreat Britain Top Team (Brad Pickett)Uzbekistan Regional Striking
Tactical Thesis: Kavanagh holds a massive 4-inch reach advantage (67" vs 63") and 2-inch height edge at 125 lbs, backed by elite lateral footwork and speed under Brad Pickett at Great Britain Top Team. Because Temirov carries a compact hook puncher's chance, we cap Kavanagh strictly to Parlay #4 (10% bankroll exposure).
RULE #6 FIGHT SPARRING MODE: CONTRARIAN VULNERABILITY AUDIT

Under Rule #6 (Fight Sparring Mode), we stress-test how each of our 4 targets could realistically lose so you know the exact risk factors before staking capital:

Evloev vs. Volkanovski
Evloev has zero UFC finishes and tends to coast in Round 3 after banking early control time. Across a 25-minute championship fight, if 38-year-old Volkanovski stuffs the first 4 takedowns and chops Evloev's lead calf, close championship rounds could swing on the judges' scorecards.
Vagaev vs. Malkoun
Vagaev spent most of his championship career at 170 lbs (Welterweight) in ACA and is fighting at 185 lbs here. Malkoun is a relentless cardio machine trained by Robert Whittaker's team who shoots 15+ takedowns a fight. Vagaev must punish Malkoun's entries early so he doesn't get fence-stalled.
Volkov vs. Kuniev
Volkov turns 37 on fight night and struggles when stocky heavyweights pin his back against the cage and smother his long kicks. Kuniev will try to make this an ugly clinch-grind against the fence rather than kickboxing at 81-inch range.
Kavanagh vs. Temirov
Temirov is a compact 5'4" Uzbek slugger who wings explosive hooks in the pocket. If Kavanagh admires his own combinations and stays in the pocket for a third exchange instead of pivoting out behind his 4-inch reach edge, Temirov has live round-1 knockout power.
THE DISQUALIFICATION GRAVEYARD (UFC 333 POPULAR TRAPS VETOED)

High-profile favorites on Saturday's UFC 333 card that look tempting to the public but violate our strict Body-First, Age Cap, or Odds Threshold rules:

Azamat Murzakanov (-250) vs. Dominick Reyes
Murzakanov is 5'10" (71" reach) and 37 years old, giving up 6 INCHES in height and 6 INCHES in reach to 6'4" (77" reach) Dominick Reyes! Laying -250 on a 37-year-old who is 6 inches shorter violates Rule #1 Body First and the 35-Year Age Cap. STRICT VETO.
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-450) vs. Nikita Krylov
Yakhyaev (6'2") is 1 inch shorter than veteran finisher Nikita Krylov (6'3") and is priced at -450 (1.22x), failing both Rule #1 (Body First) and Rule #8 (> 1.25 / -400 odds threshold). STRICT PASS.
Petr Yan (-165) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (Trilogy)
Yan is 5'7" (67" reach) vs. Merab at 5'6" (68" reach)—only 1 inch of height and -1 inch of reach. Merab is 35, while Yan struggled with Merab's 49-takedown pace previously. Fails Rule #1 (2–3" Size Law). STRICT PASS.
Asaf Chopurov (-350) vs. Colby Thicknesse
Both fighters are 5'7" with a 69" reach (0.0" height or reach differential). Never lay -350 juice when our fighter holds zero physical frame advantage. Violates Rule #1. STRICT PASS.
Grant Dawson (-110) vs. Nurullo Aliev (-110)
Identical clone measurements: both are 5'10" with a 72" reach, and Aliev is 12–0 undefeated (7 years younger at age 25 vs 32yo Dawson). Violates both Rule #1 and the Undefeated Shield. STRICT VETO.
Aaron Pico (+100) vs. Losene Keita (-120)
Only 1 inch height difference (5'8" vs 5'9"). Pico has historical chin vulnerability under fire, while Keita is an explosive knockout puncher (violates Rule #5 Flash KO Veto & Chin Audit). STRICT VETO.