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UFC VEGAS 114 STRAWWEIGHT BOUT

BIA MESQUITA VS MONTSE RENDON

UFC VEGAS 114 • LAS VEGAS, NV • MARCH 14, 2026
ORTHODOX
Beatriz Mesquita

BEATRIZ MESQUITA

"BIA"
RECORD6-0-0
AGE34
HEIGHT163 cm
REACH170 cm
ODDS1.22
FORM
W
W
W
W
W
Victory Breakdown
KO (0)
SUB (4)
DEC (2)
GRAPPLING
BJJ WORLD CHAMPION
SLpM
2.80
STYLE
ELITE GRAPPLER

PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Robert Hill LOSS (DEC)
Rank: Unranked Level: Journeyman
vs. John King WIN (KO)
Rank: #2 Level: High-Level Wrestler
vs. Alex Wilson WIN (DEC)
Rank: #11 Level: BJJ Specialist
VS
ORTHODOX
Montserrat Rendon

MONTSERRAT RENDON

"MONSTER"
RECORD7-1-0
AGE36
HEIGHT173 cm
REACH173 cm
ODDS4.50
FORM
L
W
W
W
W
Victory Breakdown
KO (0)
SUB (0)
DEC (7)
STRIKING
VOLUME BASED
TD DEFENSE
100%
STYLE
DECISION FIGHTER

PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Alex Davis LOSS (KO)
Rank: Unranked Level: High-Level Wrestler
vs. Arnold Evans LOSS (KO)
Rank: #10 Level: Elite Striker
vs. Max Robinson LOSS (KO)
Rank: #4 Level: Elite Grappler

AGENT 22: TACTICAL SPIDER MATRIX

A.I. Generated Attribute Comparison

📈 SHARP vs. PUBLIC SPLIT

Tracking syndicate money vs. retail betting volume in real-time across major sportsbooks.

TICKETS (Public) 82% ON MESQUITA
18% (RENDON)
MONEY (Sharps) 94% ON MESQUITA
6% (RENDON)
AGENT 22 ALERT: Near total market consensus on MESQUITA. Sharps viewing this as a "lock" of the night.

🎯 VALUE PROP SCANNER

Agent 22's highest +EV expected value derivative markets for this matchup.

Mesquita by Submission
Implied Prob: 60%
-140
EDGE: 15.2%
PREMIUM PLAY
Mesquita by R1 Submission
Implied Prob: 35%
+185
EDGE: 10.8%
Fight Under 2.5 Rounds
Implied Prob: 55%
-120
EDGE: 4.5%

⏱️ DANGER ZONE TIMELINE

Predictive model detailing when each fighter hits their absolute peak finishing sequence probability.

MESQUITA
PEAK THREAT
ROUNDS 1-2
Maximum submission risk on every exchange.
RENDON
SURVIVAL
ROUND 2.5
Rendon fighting to stay on feet.
MATCH
FATIGUE
ROUND 3
Pace slows as Mesquita looks to salt it away.

PRO INTEL: ADVANCED METRICS

Win Quality
MESQUITA 100% SUCCESS
Advantage: MESQUITA (Elite Pedigree)
Mesquita BJJ
10x WORLD CHAMP
Unrivaled ground game in women's MMA.
Rendon Chin
DURABLE
Has never been finished professionally.
Reach Gap
RENDON +3 INCHES
Rendon must use length to stay away.

CAMP WARFARE INTEL

AMERICAN TOP TEAM (ATT)
Coconut Creek, FL
  • The Gold Standard: Mesquita is training at the world's premier MMA facility, refining her striking to match her elite grappling.
  • World-Class Sparring: Sharing mats with multiple UFC champions ensures she's ready for any scenario.
  • CAMP DNA: Championship Pedigree, Total Integration, Submission Dominance.
ECR FIGHT CENTER / MEXICO
Queretaro, Mexico
  • Mexican Warrior Spirit: Rendon brings that trademark toughness and high cardio output associated with top Mexican gyms.
  • Decision Strategy: Focused on point-fighting and cage control to neutralize power.
  • CAMP DNA: Resilience, High Cardio, Tactical Out-Fighting.

TECHNICAL WAR ROOM

BEATRIZ MESQUITA

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Mesquita's objective is simple: get Rendon to the floor. Once there, the skill gap in BJJ is astronomical. Look for her to use a reactive takedown when Rendon commits to a combination.

MONTSERRAT RENDON

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Rendon must use her 68" reach and lateral movement to avoid the clinch at all costs. She needs to keep Mesquita at the end of her punches and stay out of the "red zone" near the fence.

EXPERT BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

PREDICTED WINNER: BEATRIZ MESQUITA

Beatriz Mesquita is arguably the most accomplished female grappler to ever enter the UFC. Montserrat Rendon is a game and durable fighter who specializes in winning decisions, but she has never faced anyone with the positional dominance of Mesquita. Unless Mesquita runs into a stray shot while closing the distance, she should be able to get this to the mat and find a submission within the first two rounds.