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UFC VEGAS 114 LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT

BOLAJI OKI VS MANOEL SOUSA

UFC VEGAS 114 • LAS VEGAS, NV • MARCH 14, 2026
ORTHODOX
Bolaji Oki

BOLAJI OKI

"THE SON OF SOIL"
RECORD10-3-0
AGE30
HEIGHT178 cm
REACH185 cm
ODDS3.60
FORM
W
W
W
W
L
Victory Breakdown
KO (6)
SUB (1)
DEC (3)
STRIKING
POWERFUL
SLpM
6.60
STYLE
KICKBOXER

PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Jared Clark WIN (DEC)
Rank: Unranked Level: High-Level Wrestler
vs. Petr Roberts LOSS (DEC)
Rank: Unranked Level: Knockout Artist
vs. John Baker WIN (DEC)
Rank: #13 Level: Prospect
VS
ORTHODOX
Manoel Sousa

MANOEL SOUSA

"MANU"
RECORD13-1-0
AGE28
HEIGHT175 cm
REACH178 cm
ODDS1.28
FORM
W
W
W
W
W
Victory Breakdown
KO (7)
SUB (3)
DEC (3)
GRAPPLING
ELITE
TD ACC
62%
STYLE
BJJ / STRIKER

PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Yair White WIN (SUB)
Rank: #7 Level: Veteran
vs. Alex Lee WIN (KO)
Rank: #5 Level: Knockout Artist
vs. Max Edwards WIN (DEC)
Rank: Unranked Level: High-Level Wrestler

AGENT 22: TACTICAL SPIDER MATRIX

A.I. Generated Attribute Comparison

📈 SHARP vs. PUBLIC SPLIT

Tracking syndicate money vs. retail betting volume in real-time across major sportsbooks.

TICKETS (Public) 74% ON SOUSA
26% (OKI)
MONEY (Sharps) 82% ON SOUSA
18% (OKI)
AGENT 22 ALERT: Heavy syndicate backing detected on SOUSA. The line is shortening fast.

🎯 VALUE PROP SCANNER

Agent 22's highest +EV expected value derivative markets for this matchup.

Sousa by KO or Sub
Implied Prob: 58%
-185
EDGE: 11.2%
PREMIUM PLAY
Sousa by KO/TKO
Implied Prob: 35%
+140
EDGE: 6.8%
Fight Under 2.5 Rounds
Implied Prob: 65%
-160
EDGE: 5.1%

⏱️ DANGER ZONE TIMELINE

Predictive model detailing when each fighter hits their absolute peak finishing sequence probability.

SOUSA
PEAK THREAT
ROUNDS 1-2
Aggressive blitzing & submission hunting.
PERSISTENCE
PHASE
ROUND 2.5
Sousa maintains pressure.
OKI
DESPERATION
ROUND 3
Oki's cardio tested late.

PRO INTEL: ADVANCED METRICS

Win Quality
SOUSA +80% FINISH
Advantage: SOUSA (Finishing Instinct)
Oki Chin
QUESTIONABLE
Has been stopped in previous defeats.
Sousa Gas Tank
UNTESTED LATE
Rarely goes to a decision.
Reach Gap
OKI +3 INCHES
Oki must use his length to stay safe.

CAMP WARFARE INTEL

MMA FACTORY / PARIS
Paris, France
  • Fernand Lopez System: Oki is training under the same system that produced Ciryl Gane and Francis Ngannou, focusing on high-level tactical movements.
  • European Circuit Veteran: Extensive experience against tough regional competition in Europe.
  • CAMP DNA: Tactical Striking, Athleticism, High Fight IQ.
CHUTE BOXE DIEGO LIMA
Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • The Oliveira Pedigree: Training alongside Charles Oliveira, Sousa carries that same aggressive finishing mindset.
  • Aggressive Muay Thai: Chute Boxe style is famous for its relentless violence and high-volume striking.
  • CAMP DNA: Ultra-Aggressive, Elite BJJ, KO Power.

TECHNICAL WAR ROOM

BOLAJI OKI

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Oki needs to maintain distance and use his 73" reach to keep Sousa at the end of his jabs and crosses. He cannot afford to get pinned against the fence.

MANOEL SOUSA

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Sousa will try to close the distance immediately. Look for him to use his pressure to force Oki into a brawl or a clinch exchange where his BJJ can take over.

EXPERT BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

PREDICTED WINNER: MANOEL SOUSA

Manoel Sousa represents a significant step up in finishing ability for Oki. Sousa's Chute Boxe pedigree combined with his high finish rate (both KO and Sub) makes him a dangerous matchup for Oki. While Oki has the reach, Sousa's relentless pressure usually forces opponents into making mistakes. Expect Sousa to find a finish in the first or second round.