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UFC 326 MAIN EVENT BMF TITLE BOUT

MAX HOLLOWAY VS CHARLES OLIVEIRA

UFC 326 • LAS VEGAS, NV • MARCH 7, 2026
ORTHODOX
Max Holloway

MAX HOLLOWAY

"BLESSED"
RECORD27-8-0
AGE34
HEIGHT180 cm
REACH175 cm
ODDS1.80
FORM
W
W
W
L
W
Victory Breakdown
KO (12)
SUB (2)
DEC (13)
STRIKE VOLUME
7.20 SLpM
CHIN
Legendary
STYLE
VOLUME BOXER

PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Max Thompson LOSS (KO)
Rank: Unranked Level: BJJ Specialist
vs. Kamaru Hill LOSS (DEC)
Rank: #6 Level: Prospect
vs. Max Scott LOSS (DEC)
Rank: #15 Level: Gatekeeper
VS
ORTHODOX
Charles Oliveira

CHARLES OLIVEIRA

"DO BRONXS"
RECORD36-11-0
AGE36
HEIGHT178 cm
REACH188 cm
ODDS2.05
FORM
W
L
W
L
W
Victory Breakdown
KO (10)
SUB (22)
DEC (4)
SUBMISSIONS
UFC Record Holder
REACH ADV.
+13 cm
STYLE
BJJ SPECIALIST / MUAY THAI

PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Marvin Perez WIN (SUB)
Rank: Unranked Level: Elite Striker
vs. Alexandre Wright WIN (KO)
Rank: Unranked Level: Elite Striker
vs. Calvin Gonzalez LOSS (KO)
Rank: Unranked Level: Elite Grappler

AGENT 22: TACTICAL SPIDER MATRIX

A.I. Generated Attribute Comparison

📈 SHARP vs. PUBLIC SPLIT

Tracking syndicate money vs. retail betting volume in real-time across major sportsbooks.

TICKETS (Public) 70% ON OLIVEIRA
30% (HOLLOWAY)
MONEY (Sharps) 63% ON HOLLOWAY
37% (OLIVEIRA)
AGENT 22 ALERT: Massive sharp money detected on HOLLOWAY. Reverse line movement in effect.

CAMP WARFARE INTEL

GRACIE TECHNICS / HAWAII
Waipahu, HI
  • The Flores Volume Lab: **Ivan Flores** has Max sharpening his "blind-spot" entries, focusing on high-volume combinations that specifically exploit Oliveira's tendency to stand tall and square.
  • Strength & Explosiveness: A massive focus in the 2025-2026 cycle on "anti-shot" verticality—preventing Oliveira's double-legs to keep the fight in the striking realm.
  • Mental Clarity: Training in the isolation of the islands, Max has emphasized "duration-pacing," ensuring he can maintain BMF-level intensity for 25 full minutes.
  • CAMP DNA: Unrivaled Volume, Hawaii Heart, Elite Conditioning.
CHUTE BOXE LIMA / BRAZIL
Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • The Diego Lima Pressure Program: **Diego Lima** has Oliveira focused on "early-collision," aiming to break Holloway's rhythm via heavy Muay Thai clinch work and knees.
  • Elite Cross-Training: Technical striking sessions with **Ian Garry** to prepare for the speed and precision of Max's jab.
  • Back-Mount Hunting: Specialized BJJ rounds focused exclusively on "transition-back-takes," looking for the second Max over-commits to a combination.
  • CAMP DNA: Aggressive Finishing, Chute Boxe Violence, All-Time Submission Threat.

🎯 VALUE PROP SCANNER

Agent 22's highest +EV expected value derivative markets for this matchup.

Fight Doesn't Go The Distance
Implied Prob: 68%
-150
EDGE: 4.2%
PREMIUM PLAY
HOLLOWAY by Decision
Implied Prob: 22%
+278
EDGE: 9.8%
OLIVEIRA by KO/TKO
Implied Prob: 15%
+463
EDGE: 2.1%

⏱️ DANGER ZONE TIMELINE

Predictive model detailing when each fighter hits their absolute peak finishing sequence probability.

OLIVEIRA
PEAK THREAT
ROUNDS 1-2
Early explosiveness & submission hunting.
ATTRITION
PHASE
ROUND 3
Pace slows, cardio tested.
HOLLOWAY
PEAK THREAT
ROUNDS 4-5 / LATE
Volume accumulation & late TKO.

PRO INTEL: ADVANCED METRICS

Cage Geometry
30FT BIG OCTAGON
Advantage: STRIKER (Space)
Holloway Chin Health
ELITE / STABLE
0 Career KDs at FW/LW
Oliveira Chin Health
HIGH MILEAGE
Recoverability: High / Durability: Low
Acclimation
DESERT HEAT RISK
Oliveira: Travel from Brazil

CAMP WARFARE INTEL

HAWAII ELITE MMA / TACTICAL STRENGTH
Waianae, Hawaii
  • The Anti-BJJ Protocol: Coaching staff led by **Ivan Flores** has implemented a "Gi-Heavy" immersion camp, forcing Max into high-stress submission dilemmas to sharpen his anti-grappling reflexes.
  • Marine/Seal Conditioning: Strength lead **Darren Yap** has introduced biometric-linked anaerobic threshold training, aimed at maintaining Max's legendary 5th-round volume even in the LW division.
  • The "Flores Box": Specific tactical focus on lateral pivots and "short-range flurries" to intercept Oliveira's aggressive Chute-Boxe entries.
  • CAMP DNA: High-Volume Boxing, Elite Anti-Grappling, Peerless Cardio.
CHUTE BOXE DIEGO LIMA
Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Chaos Theory Scrambles: **Diego Lima** has designed "3-on-1 shark tank" sessions where Charles must transition from striking to submissions under extreme chaotic pressure without pause.
  • Clinch-to-Choke Chains: Heavy emphasis on Thai Clinch knees to compromise Holloway's midsection, immediately followed by the signature rear-naked choke transitions.
  • The "Do Bronxs" Revival: Camp reports indicate Charles hasn't missed a single session, driven by the goal of unifying the BMF and undisputed Lightweight titles in 2026.
  • CAMP DNA: Aggressive Muay Thai, World-Class BJJ Scrambles, Submission Hunting.

TECHNICAL WAR ROOM

MAX HOLLOWAY

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Max's ability to maintain high SLpM (7.20) will test Charles' gas tank and chin. He must avoid being dragged into a grappling war.

CHARLES OLIVEIRA

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Charles needs to use his 5-inch reach advantage to set up entries. His path to victory is 100% on the ground.

EXPERT BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

PREDICTED WINNER: MAX HOLLOWAY

Oliveira has a stalking Muay Thai style, elite submissions, and forward pressure. However, Holloway has some of the best boxing, distance management, and cardio in MMA history, alongside a granite chin. Holloway's ability to maintain range and fire endless combinations will punish Oliveira every time he tries to close the distance for a takedown or a brawl. Over five rounds, Holloway's relentless volume is expected to bust up Oliveira's face and win the fight.