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UFC 326 CO-MAIN MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT

CAIO BORRALHO VS REINIER DE RIDDER

UFC 326 • LAS VEGAS, NV • MARCH 7, 2026
SOUTHPAW
Caio Borralho

CAIO BORRALHO

"THE NATURAL"
RECORD17-2-0
AGE33
HEIGHT187 cm
REACH190 cm
ODDS1.45
FORM
W
W
W
W
W
Victory Breakdown
KO (4)
SUB (4)
DEC (9)
STRIKE ACC.
56%
TD DEFENSE
76%
STYLE
ELITE ALL-ROUNDER

PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Tom Edwards WIN (DEC)
Rank: Unranked Level: Veteran
vs. Max Campbell WIN (DEC)
Rank: #8 Level: Journeyman
vs. Josh Baker LOSS (KO)
Rank: #4 Level: Gatekeeper
VS
SOUTHPAW
Reinier De Ridder

REINIER DE RIDDER

"THE DUTCH KNIGHT"
RECORD21-3-0
AGE35
HEIGHT193 cm
REACH198 cm
ODDS2.80
FORM
W
W
L
L
W
Victory Breakdown
KO (4)
SUB (14)
DEC (3)
SUBMISSIONS
Master Class
TOP CONTROL
Heavy Pressure
STYLE
JUDO / BJJ SPECIALIST

PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Ilia Nelson WIN (KO)
Rank: #7 Level: Elite Grappler
vs. John Roberts WIN (KO)
Rank: #1 Level: Prospect
vs. Alexandre Hall LOSS (DEC)
Rank: #8 Level: Veteran

AGENT 22: TACTICAL SPIDER MATRIX

A.I. Generated Attribute Comparison

📈 SHARP vs. PUBLIC SPLIT

Tracking syndicate money vs. retail betting volume in real-time across major sportsbooks.

TICKETS (Public) 81% ON RIDDER
19% (BORRALHO)
MONEY (Sharps) 61% ON BORRALHO
39% (RIDDER)
AGENT 22 ALERT: Massive sharp money detected on BORRALHO. Reverse line movement in effect.

🎯 VALUE PROP SCANNER

Agent 22's highest +EV expected value derivative markets for this matchup.

Fight Doesn't Go The Distance
Implied Prob: 68%
-150
EDGE: 4.2%
PREMIUM PLAY
BORRALHO by Submission
Implied Prob: 22%
+428
EDGE: 9.8%
RIDDER by KO/TKO
Implied Prob: 15%
+501
EDGE: 2.1%

⏱️ DANGER ZONE TIMELINE

Predictive model detailing when each fighter hits their absolute peak finishing sequence probability.

RIDDER
PEAK THREAT
ROUNDS 1-2
Early explosiveness & submission hunting.
ATTRITION
PHASE
ROUND 3
Pace slows, cardio tested.
BORRALHO
PEAK THREAT
ROUNDS 4-5 / LATE
Volume accumulation & late TKO.

PRO INTEL: ADVANCED METRICS

Cage Geometry
30FT BIG OCTAGON
Advantage: BORRALHO (Footwork)
Borralho Chin
ELITE / STABLE
Never KO'd in Pro Career
De Ridder Chin
VULNERABLE
Multiple KO losses in ONE
Acclimation
VEGAS CLIMATE RISK
De Ridder: Humidity shift (FL -> NV)

CAMP WARFARE INTEL

FIGHTING NERDS / BRAZIL
Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • Analytical Approach: Utilizing the "Nerd Way" methodology, breaking down De Ridder's clinch entries into phases.
  • Elite Partners: Sparring intensive rounds with Jean Silva and Maurício Ruffy to mimic high-pace distance striking.
  • Tactical Focus: Specific drills on "cage-resetting" to neutralize Reinier's judo-based takedown attempts.
COMBAT BROTHERS
Netherlands
  • UFC Transition: Intensive camp focused on adapting Reinier's grappling to the 30-foot UFC Octagon.
  • Dutch Kickboxing: Leveraging world-class striking partners in the Netherlands to shore up defensive holes in transition.
  • Clinch Dominance: Focusing on "heavy-hips" strategy to keep the fight against the fence and drain Caio's explosiveness.

TECHNICAL WAR ROOM

CAIO BORRALHO

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Borralho wins by keeping this a distance fight. His striking efficiency (SApM 2.50) is elite for the division.

REINIER DE RIDDER

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

The Knight MUST get the clinch. If he can bridge the gap, his Judo/BJJ chain is a nightmare for anyone.

EXPERT BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

PREDICTED WINNER: REINIER DE RIDDER

Borralho is the cleaner, more technical striker with excellent takedown defense, but he can sometimes be too patient. De Ridder is a massive 6'4" grappler with a 78-inch reach and a highly aggressive, chaotic style. De Ridder's previous poor performance is attributed to a severe virus. If healthy, De Ridder's constant forward pressure, knees up the middle, and relentless clinch attempts are expected to overpower Borralho's technical but lower-volume game.