UFC 326 PRELIMS LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT

RAFAEL TOBIAS VS DIYAR NURGOZHAY

UFC 326 • LAS VEGAS, NV • MARCH 7, 2026

SOUTHPAW

RAFAEL TOBIAS

"IRON"

RECORD9-2-0

AGE22

HEIGHT173 cm

REACH178 cm

ODDS1.95

FORM

Victory Breakdown

KO (14)

SUB (6)

DEC (8)

KO POWER

ELITE (UFC Record)

SLpM

4.52

STYLE

ALL-ROUNDER

⚡ PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Leon Johnson WIN (SUB)

Rank: Unranked Level: High-Level Wrestler

vs. Brian Hernandez LOSS (DEC)

Rank: #1 Level: Veteran

vs. Derrick Evans LOSS (KO)

Rank: #2 Level: Elite Grappler

SOUTHPAW

DIYAR NURGOZHAY

"THE MENACE"

RECORD10-0-0

AGE28

HEIGHT178 cm

REACH185 cm

ODDS1.70

FORM

Victory Breakdown

KO (10)

SUB (2)

DEC (13)

HAND SPEED

Legendary

TD DEFENSE

81%

STYLE

FAST STRIKER

⚡ PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Jon Wilson WIN (KO)

Rank: Unranked Level: Knockout Artist

vs. Henry Allen WIN (KO)

Rank: #6 Level: BJJ Specialist

vs. Paulo Rodriguez WIN (DEC)

Rank: #5 Level: High-Level Wrestler

AGENT 22: TACTICAL SPIDER MATRIX

A.I. Generated Attribute Comparison

📈 SHARP vs. PUBLIC SPLIT

Tracking syndicate money vs. retail betting volume in real-time across major sportsbooks.

TICKETS (Public) 70% ON NURGOZHAY

30% (TOBIAS)

MONEY (Sharps) 58% ON TOBIAS

42% (NURGOZHAY)

AGENT 22 ALERT: Massive sharp money detected on TOBIAS. Reverse line movement in effect.

🎯 VALUE PROP SCANNER

Agent 22's highest +EV expected value derivative markets for this matchup.

Fight Doesn't Go The Distance

Implied Prob: 68%

-150

EDGE: 4.2%

PREMIUM PLAY

TOBIAS by Submission

Implied Prob: 22%

+432

EDGE: 9.8%

NURGOZHAY by Decision

Implied Prob: 15%

+528

EDGE: 2.1%

⏱️ DANGER ZONE TIMELINE

Predictive model detailing when each fighter hits their absolute peak finishing sequence probability.

NURGOZHAY
PEAK THREAT

ROUNDS 1-2

Early explosiveness & submission hunting.

ATTRITION
PHASE

ROUND 3

Pace slows, cardio tested.

TOBIAS
PEAK THREAT

ROUNDS 4-5 / LATE

Volume accumulation & late TKO.

PRO INTEL: ADVANCED METRICS

Cage Geometry

30FT BIG OCTAGON

Advantage: NURGOZHAY (Space to Blitz)

Dober Chin

IRON / STABLE

Legendary durability (4.48 SApM)

Nurgozhay Chin

STABLE / FRESH

Prospect durability vs the veteran edge.

Acclimation

DESERT STRIKING

Both fighters Denver/Vegas acclimated

CAMP WARFARE INTEL

CHUTE BOXE MONSTRO

Primary Training Camp

"High intensity preparation specifically tailored for this matchup."

TOBET TOP TEAM

Primary Training Camp

"Focusing on tactical advantages and exploiting opponent tendencies."

TECHNICAL WAR ROOM

RAFAEL TOBIAS

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Tobias needs to utilize his youth and scrambling ability. He must push a pace that Nurgozhay hasn't seen in the regional circuit.

DIYAR NURGOZHAY

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Nurgozhay needs to use his reach and power. He must land early to discourage the younger Tobias and control the center of the octagon.

EXPERT BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

PREDICTED WINNER: RAPHAEL TOBIAS

Nurgozhay is an aggressive power striker but has been disappointing in the UFC due to poor submission defense and an inability to perform off his back. Tobias is an explosive striker who seamlessly transitions from combinations into takedowns. While the striking exchanges will be explosive, Tobias’s superior scrambling ability, top pressure, and dangerous submission game give him a distinct advantage.

RAFAEL TOBIAS

⚡ PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

DIYAR NURGOZHAY

⚡ PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

AGENT 22: TACTICAL SPIDER MATRIX

📈 SHARP vs. PUBLIC SPLIT

🎯 VALUE PROP SCANNER

⏱️ DANGER ZONE TIMELINE

PRO INTEL: ADVANCED METRICS

CAMP WARFARE INTEL

TECHNICAL WAR ROOM

RAFAEL TOBIAS

DIYAR NURGOZHAY

EXPERT BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

AGENT 22 INTEL