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UFC LONDON MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT

MANTAS KONDRATAVICIUS VS ANTONIO TROCOLI

UFC LONDON • O2 ARENA, UK • MARCH 21, 2026
ORTHODOX
Mantas Kondratavicius

MANTAS KONDRATAVICIUS

"THE LITHUANIAN"
RECORD8-1-0
AGE26
HEIGHT188 cm
REACH188 cm
ODDS1.25
FORM
W
W
W
W
L
Victory Breakdown
KO (6)
SUB (2)
DEC (0)
STYLE
POWER FINISHER
STRENGTH
CLEAN STRIKING

⚔ PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Charles Nelson WIN (SUB)
Rank: Unranked Level: Journeyman
vs. Sergei Thomas WIN (DEC)
Rank: Unranked Level: Elite Striker
vs. Giga Miller LOSS (DEC)
Rank: #10 Level: Title Contender
VS
ORTHODOX
Antonio Trocoli

ANTONIO TROCOLI

"MALVADO"
RECORD12-6-0
AGE35
HEIGHT196 cm
REACH203 cm
ODDS4.20
FORM
L
L
L
W
W
Victory Breakdown
KO (3)
SUB (5)
DEC (4)
STYLE
GRAPPLER
STRENGTH
ELITE REACH

⚔ PREVIOUS FIGHT RECORDS

vs. Islam Lopez LOSS (DEC)
Rank: Unranked Level: Gatekeeper
vs. Jared Smith LOSS (DEC)
Rank: Unranked Level: Gatekeeper
vs. Marlon Perez WIN (DEC)
Rank: #6 Level: Knockout Artist

AGENT 22: TACTICAL SPIDER MATRIX

A.I. Generated Attribute Comparison

šŸ“ˆ SHARP vs. PUBLIC SPLIT

Tracking syndicate money vs. retail betting volume in real-time across major sportsbooks.

TICKETS (Public) 82% ON MANTAS KONDRATAVICIUS
18% (TROCOLI)
MONEY (Sharps) 91% ON MANTAS KONDRATAVICIUS
9% (TROCOLI)
AGENT 22 ALERT: Massive sharp entry on Mantas. Trocoli's recent durability issues against high-volume strikers are being heavily targeted.

šŸŽÆ VALUE PROP SCANNER

Agent 22's highest +EV expected value derivative markets for this matchup.

Mantas by KO/TKO
Implied Prob: 68%
-150
EDGE: 14.2%
HEAVY FAVORITE
Mantas ML
Implied Prob: 80%
-400
EDGE: 4.1%
Fight Under 1.5 Rounds
Implied Prob: 75%
-180
EDGE: 9.4%

ā±ļø DANGER ZONE TIMELINE

Predictive model detailing when each fighter hits their absolute peak finishing sequence probability.

MANTAS
KO WINDOW
ROUND 1
Mantas starts aggressive. 90% peak threat here.
TROCOLI
GRIND
ROUND 2
If it lasts, Trocoli's size becomes a factor.
EXHAUSTION
PHASE
ROUND 3
High probability of finish before this round.

PRO INTEL: ADVANCED METRICS

Takedown Average
MANTAS 13.64 / 15m
Relentless offensive wrestling.
Strike Defense
TROCOLI 24%
Statistically alarming defense.
Control Time
MANTAS 71% AVG
Dominates top position.
Reach Advantage
TROCOLI +15 cm
Massive frame for the weight.

CAMP WARFARE INTEL

ATT / BALTIC MMA
Vilnius, Lithuania
  • Elite Wrestling: Mantas has been training with top-tier NCAA crossovers.
  • Finishing Instinct: Focus on punishing opponents when they reset.
  • CAMP DNA: Pressure, Takedowns, Baltic Resilience.
BRAZILIAN TOP TEAM
Rio, Brazil
  • BJJ Specialist: Trocoli's path to victory is through a high-level submission.
  • Physical Conditioning: Trying to fix the late-round durability fade.
  • CAMP DNA: Jiu-Jitsu, Reach Utilization, Veteran Savvy.

TECHNICAL WAR ROOM

MANTAS KONDRATAVICIUS

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Mantas needs to ignore Trocoli's length and crash the distance immediately. By using his superior takedown accuracy, he can put Trocoli on his back where the Brazilian is most vulnerable to ground-and-pound. A heavy volume of strikes will likely force a stoppage early.

ANTONIO TROCOLI

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN

Trocoli must use his 80-inch reach to pump a stiff jab and keep Mantas at the end of his strikes. His best chance is to catch Mantas in a guillotine or triangle as the Lithuanian dives for a takedown. Staying mobile and off the fence is critical for survival.

EXPERT BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

PREDICTED WINNER: MANTAS KONDRATAVICIUS

Mantas Kondratavicius is a rising prospect who looks poised to overwhelm the veteran Antonio Trocoli. Trocoli's defensive metrics—absorbing over 5 strikes per minute with only 24% defense—are a major red flag against a fighter with Mantas' finishing rate. While Trocoli has a massive reach advantage, his recent history of being stopped and submitted suggests he will struggle with the pace and pressure of the Lithuanian. Expect Mantas to secure a takedown early and force a TKO stoppage through ground-and-pound in the first round.